Monthly Deep Dive
Published last day of each month · Medium-term structure analysis + on-chain insights + next month trade plan.
Latest Deep Dive
2026-05BTC Monthly Deep Dive: Breakout Imminent, Preparing for New Highs
Monthly Structure: May closed as a large bullish bar, closing above EMA20 ($70,200). Two consecutive bullish monthly bars. May low ($68,300) > April low ($65,800), confirming Higher Low structure. Monthly timeframe is in an uptrend after healthy retest.
Al Brooks Monthly Signal: May's K-line is a Strong Bull Bar (close near high, body > 80%), consistent with Al Brooks' "Trend Continuation" pattern. April's Doji Bar failed to extend the downtrend; bulls defended $65,000 demand zone, confirming a mid-term bottom.
On-chain Data: May saw exchange net outflow of -48,200 BTC (source: CryptoQuant), the largest single-month outflow since 2026. LTH (Long-Term Holder) addresses increased +32,100 BTC. Chips moved from exchanges to cold wallets—sell pressure reduction signal is clear.
ETH/BTC Ratio: ETH/BTC rose from 0.045 to 0.052 in May. ETH monthly performance exceeded BTC for the first time since Dec 2025. Alt season expectation is warming, but wait for BTC dominance to break below 50% for confirmation.
Next Month Key Levels: Resistance $78,000 (monthly prior high) · $82,000 (psychological). Support $70,000 (EMA20) / $65,800 (monthly HL). If $70,000 breaks, structure turns neutral—re-evaluate.
Next Month Trade Plan (June)
- ▶If retest $71,000–$72,000 and 1H shows Bullish Engulfing Bar, go long. TP $76,000, SL $69,500
- ▶If breakout above $75,000 with volume expansion, chase. TP $78,000, SL $73,000
- ▶If breakdown below $69,500 and 1H shows Bearish Engulfing Bar, short (scalp). TP $67,000, SL $71,000
- ▶Risk management: max 2% per trade, total exposure ≤ 10%
This Month's Related Trades
Historical Deep Dives
Monthly Deep Dive Methodology
- ▸Based on Al Brooks price action — focus on monthly/weekly structure
- ▸Integrates on-chain data (exchange netflow, LTH balance change)
- ▸Full monthly paper trading record, transparent P&L
- ▸Next month plan: key levels + trigger conditions + risk management